Saturday, December 22, 2018

Automatic Trading Using WCMI

Explore And Exploit

On which sports-trading events should we risk our capital? A good starting point is to ask the fundamental question of sports markets:

"Is the public market well-informed with respect to a specific event (Wisdom of Crowd)?"

Our proxy for identifying such events is to calculate the Wisdom of Crowd Market Index (WCMI) for all markets and to select only those events for which the market falls below a specific WCMI threshold (for example, 0.15). By focusing on these less well-informed markets, we are dramatically increasing the chances of identifying at least one overlay. In other words, the guiding principle is to explore all markets but only exploit those markets with low WCMIs. For UK Flat horse-racing markets, FlatStats is the logical starting point in this process.

Market Selection Using WCMI

The following Betfair simulation shows how an automated trading solution would first filter those markets with low WCMI and then, having identified at least one overlay, bet on one or more selections as calculated by the Single Event Multiple Selections variant of the Kelly Criterion:
  • Filter markets (e.g. identify 5f sprints);
  • Calculate WCMI for each filtered market;
  • Rank contenders in market on fundamental factors;
  • Create odds-line for contenders based on ratings;
  • Check market contains at least one overlay;
  • Make selections using Kelly Criterion; and
  • Submit bets.