Melbourne Cup Day (2021)

As already indicated in earlier posts, there are obvious advantages to using Finish Position Ratings (FPR) when comparing runners from different racing circuits - (AUS, GBR, IRL, and NZL). Spurred on by getting third and fourth in the "Arc" at Longchamp (FR), we will again trial the FPR algorithm - on this occasion using the Melbourne Cup at Flemington (AUS).

Our simple (to apply) algorithm leaves us with the following selections:

• Tralee Rose, 140, 16/1;
• She's Ideel, 140, 150/1;
• Grand Promenade, 136, 17/1;
• Persan, 136, 25/1; and
• Verry Elleegant, 133, 12/1; 1st and
• Great House, 133, 16/1.

Notes:

• On this occasion, FPR is calculated from the last ten past performances only; and
• Selections are not guaranteed to be winning bets in any particular race but should be profitable in the long-term, assuming FPR has predictive validity.