Sunday, February 10, 2019

Wins Above Starting Price (WASP)

In terms of our ongoing drive to identify value bets, we can now add WASP (Wins Above Starting Price) to our armory. The method for calculating each horse's WASP is outlined below but we do not prescribe how that value should be used in any particular market.
  • Select specific race using WCMI.
  • For each horse in race (using past performances):
    Calculate number of actual wins using our Juvenile Finish Position Ratings algorithm.
    Determine number of expected wins by multiplying reciprocal of starting-price by number of opponents in race.
    Subtract expected wins from actual wins.
  • Then divide difference by number of races run and quotient is horse's WASP.
WASP tells us how well the crowd has been estimating a particular horse's past performances (on average). If, relative to the other runners, a particular horse has a higher historical WASP then, assuming you rate it a live contender, it is more likely to be a value bet.

WASP is not to be confused with the excellent A/E statistic.