Royal Ascot Coventry Stakes Post-Mortem

Given a preference for identifying live-outsiders in chaotic races, it will come as no surprise that we were drawn to the Coventry Stakes on the first day of Royal Ascot. Seventeen relatively unexposed juveniles (2yos) with, by definition, little or no track record from which to draw any reasonable inferences.

However, with hindsight, we can make a few useful, post-mortem observations:

• WCMI gave green-light (0.11) indicating market was not well-informed;
• Prior Parameters (α = 5 and β = 5) set in line with horse finishing sixth in pseudo, eleven runner race (median juvenile non-handicap field-size);
• Despite obvious limitations of using Finish Position Ratings (FPR) alone, runners with ratings of 135+ filled five out of top six finishing positions compared to filling only three of remaining eleven.
• eldrickjones was the standout selection with FPR of 139 and Betfair win and show prices of 94.99 and 19.56 respectively.
• Obvious advantages to using FPR when comparing runners from different racing circuits (GB, IE, US).

In sum, the fewer, reliable details we have when comparing runners in juvenile races, the more informative FPR is for making live-outsider selections. Obviously, it is not a panacea!