UEFA Euro (2024): Round Of Sixteen
Convex Bet
UEFA Euro (2024); June 30, 2024 18:00; England vs Slovakia
| Outcome | Probability | Implied Odds | XCH Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| England Win | 33.33% | 3.00 | 1.44 |
| Draw | 27.78% | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Slovakia Win | 38.89% | 2.57 | 10.50 |
Though soccer is not my area of expertise, a relatively simplistic statistical analysis of the "Round Of Sixteen" matchups suggest the England vs Slovakia game is the most likely one to spring an upset. We take into account the following factors:
- Dirichlet-Multinomial analysis of past performances,
- Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Simulation - Stan Ulam, and
- Thompson Sampling Of Likely Upsets.
Recommendation:
Slovakia (Win or Draw; After 90 minutes).
Non-Expert Advice To England Coach:
Go all out for the win in the first quarter of the game. What is the worst that can happen? It appears that whenever England score first in a key match they tend to dominate. Anyway, what do I know about soccer!