Saturday, January 09, 2010

ZEER: Zero Evens-Equivalent Rate

When comparing handicapper performances across different circuits, it is better to zero the tax rate at evens using ZEER:
ZEER = (StrikeRate * (Odds + Tax - (StrikeRate * Tax))) / 2
Edge = ZEER - (1 - ZEER)

For example, comparing handicappers (see above) at Aqueduct, Gulfstream, and Santa Anita gives ZEERs of 52.94%, 54.04%, and 53.00% respectively.
This yields equivalent edges for the three handicappers of 5.89%, 8.08%, and 6.00%, identifying the Gulfstream handicapper as the most successful.
In summary, ZEER allows a group of handicappers to compare their
performances on a common scale (evens at zero tax level)!