NFL Playoffs
In the NFL playoffs, whatever their prior ratings, the 14 remaining teams have progressed to the knockout phase of the Super Bowl.
'In tournaments, one may be interested in locating the really talented man in the sense that he has won over the largest number of opponents but simultaneously he has been defeated by only a few opponents...' - Ramanujacharyulu (1964).
Power-Weakness Ratio (PWR)
If we focus solely on current form (all teams starting the 2022-2023 season with a blank slate), then we may (once again) benefit from using the PWR protocol to find one or more unlikely outsiders to spring an upset.
As with the FIFA World Cup, we use an adapted version of the Ramanujacharyulu algorithm to find one or more Convex Bets. Given that the match odds are too short for our liking, we can take advantage of the 'NFL Super Bowl Winner market to provide us with higher prices, albeit with additional risk.
| Match Date | Match Time | Away Team | PWR Rating | SB Odds | Home Team | PWR Rating | SB Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 09:30 PM | Seattle Seahawks | 44 | 170.0 | San Francisco 49ers | 93 | 6.0 |
| Jan 15 | 01:15 AM | Los Angeles Chargers | 43 | 38.0 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 67 | 55.0 |
| Jan 15 | 06:00 PM | Miami Dolphins | 54 | 170.0 | Buffalo Bills | 100 | 5.1 |
| Jan 15 | 09:30 PM | New York Giants | 56 | 80.0 | Minnesota Vikings | 45 | 38.0 |
| Jan 16 | 01:15 AM | Baltimore Ravens | 69 | 90.0 | Cincinnati Bengals | 94 | 10.0 |
| Jan 17 | 01:15 AM | Dallas Cowboys | 93 | 19.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 36 | 34.0 |
Though I readily admit that NFL knowledge is not one of my strengths and that the 'blank slate' assumption is unrealistic at best, the above PWRs suggest that both the Cowboys and the Bengals may have positive expected (convex) value in both the Conference and Super Bowl markets!