Melbourne Cup FPR Analysis (2023)

When dealing with international stakes races such as the Melbourne Cup at Flemington (AUS), there are advantages to using simple FPRs when comparing runners from up to six different racing circuits - AUS, FRA, GBR, IRL, JPN, and NZL. Given this standpoint and knowing only hubris (see our lucky success in 2021), we are destined to launch ourselves once more into the abyss of handicapping this outstanding event. Effectively, we are trying to play a round of golf using only a seven-iron!

We will focus our attention on which horses are likely to make the frame and not necessarily those selections which would be considered value bets! Looking at the graph, it appears there are four clusters of ranks:

A (1).
B (2 - 14).
C (15 - 19).
D (20 - 24).

Group A is Vauban and if he performs to his expected ability level, he wins. Group B comprises the next 12 horses that are ready to pounce if there are any chinks in Vauban's armour. Given the high degree of overlap, any member of this group is a realistic contender. Group C would probably need some pace collapse at the front end to give any of them a puncher's chance of winning. Group D are, on paper, out of contention and would need an extraordinary upgrade in form combined with exceptional luck in running to hit the board.

Here are our five FPR selections against the field (alphabetically). Only Kalapour would be considered a value bet.

No	Horse	BFX	FPR
7	Absurde	14.00	35.00
21	Future History	20.00	42.00
23	Kalapour	50.00	32.00
17	Military Mission	38.00	39.00
5	Vauban	4.50	5.00

And these two Entropy horses are given an honourable mention. Once again, these would not be considered value bets.

No	Horse	BFX	FPR
15	Lastotchka	28.00	63.00
8	Right You Are	65.00	65.00

As is reflected in the betting market and confirmed by our analysis, the race is centred on 'Vauban', and the race looks his to lose!

Enjoy the spectacle!