Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day (2021)

There are obvious advantages to using Finish Position Ratings (FPR) when comparing 2yos from different racing circuits (DE, FR, GB, and IE), and 3yos+ in the Arc (DE, FR, GB, IE, and JP).

On Arc Day, there are two Group 1 juvenile (2yos) races:

• Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (1m); and
• Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) (2yo Colts and Fillies) (7f).

Because 2yos are inexperienced and in the case of these two races have been running in different countries, we feel reasonably confident that FPR will provide sufficient insight for us to identify some value bets - live outsiders (if possible).

Prix Marcel Boussac

Prix Marcel Boussac

Turning first to the Prix Marcel Boussac, we use the Oddsline Calculator to generate a realistic trader oddsline (column 'to') from the adjusted finish-position s rates (column 'm'). Then, we calculate the edges (if any) for the individual runners, sort them from highest to lowest, using KellyMutExStakes or the SBR Kelly Calculator to generate stakes from a session (race meeting) bankroll of €100. Our selections are as follows:

• Zellie, €13 @ 8/1, 1st;
• Oscula, €7 @ 20/1, 3rd; and
• Natasha, €3 @ 12/1.

In terms of strict FPR rankings, the top three contenders are:

• Raclette, 140, NR;
• Zellie, 137, 1st; and
• Agartha, 137, 3rd.

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

Turning next to the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and using the same steps as for the Prix Marcel Boussac, we are left with the following selections:

• Accakaba, €32 @ 5/1, 4th;
• Ancient Rome, €19 @ 7/2, 3rd;
• Noble Truth, €12 @ 15/2, 2nd;
• Rocchigiani, €11 @ 14/1;
• The Wizard Of Eye, €5 @ 40/1; and
• Arnis Master, €4 @ 50/1.

In terms of strict FPR rankings, the top three contenders are:

• Accakaba, 140, 4th;
• Ancient Rome, 136, 3rd; and
• Noble Truth, 132, 2nd

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Risking great hubris, we will trial the FPR algorithm in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe using the excuse that we need to additionally assess one German and two Japanese entrants! Using the same approach as above, but without showing our workings, leaves us with the following selections:

• Chrono Genesis, €34 @ 10/1;
• Alenquer, €12 @ 25/1;
• Hurricane Lane, €28 @ 7/2, 3rd; and
• Love, NR.

In terms of strict FPR rankings, the top four contenders are:

• Chrono Genesis, 140;
• Hurricane Lane, 139, 3rd;
• Alenquer, 133; and
• Adayar, 133, 4th.

Notes:

• WCMI gave green-lights for both 2yo markets (0.07 and 0.03) indicating the crowd is not well-informed;
• From the FPR perspective, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere is a more open race so we risk more of our bankroll;
• Value bets are not guaranteed to be winning bets in any particular race but should be profitable in the long-term assuming that FPR has validity.

Oddsline Calculator

[Adapted - Skiena, 2001]

Sometimes you just want to convert a set of power ratings to a reasonably accurate oddsline.

Though my strong recommendation is to use the TWPD Algorithm to generate a realistic oddsline, you can use the Oddsline Calculator to create a 'quick and dirty' oddsline from a set of power ratings in AvK events.

Note the following restrictions:

• Maximum of ten entrants.
• Limited error checking.
  • For fewer than ten entrants, leave blank rows to bottom of table.
  • Odds range from 1.01 to 1000.
  • Power ratings range from 0 to 3000.
  • Power factor can be varied between 0 and 1 to change range of odds distribution. Default value is $1/e$.

As noted last time, every race, in which we choose to participate, is a competition of oddslines between the crowd and ourselves! Whichever oddsline is closer to the true win probabilities in that race generally prevails. So use the oddsline calculator with care!

Finally, an example using an AvB contest: