Some AvB Events Are AvK Events In Disguise

Many AvB contests (MLB, NBA, and NFL moneyline markets) are exactly what they appear to be - simple win-lose events. But, other AvB contests (soccer win markets) are actually AvK contests in disguise - there are three valid outcomes (win, lose, and draw). This turns a

'single event, single selection' contest into a possible 'single event, multiple selections' one - Kelly's Multiple Personality Disorder.

Treating this soccer match as a single event with three exclusive outcomes leads to an combined investment of 5.93% of bankroll on both the draw and away-win outcomes.

Alternatively, focusing on one or both draw and home-win outcomes as separate selections leads to an investment of 3.75% on the draw outcome and 1.00% on the away-win outcome for a total of 4.75%.

Given your assumed edge relative to the market, this amounts to 'leaving money on the table', in Kelly terms!

All calculations can be replicated using the excellent SBR Calculator.Win percentages are not necessarily realistic for this specific event.