Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Total Less Than Sum Of Parts

Total Less Than Sum Of Parts - Simultaneous Events

For Nx(AvB) ('multiple events, single selection') scenarios, such as simultaneous, Sunday, NFL games, we cannot just stake them as N separate events as this could potentially involve tying up a large portion of our bankroll.

Let us assume that we have lucked out and three 'home-dogs' are offered at unbelievable odds, as follows:

Treating them as simultaneous events gives us a total stake of 43% (approx.) of bankroll at Full-Kelly, but treating them as three independent events would require a total outlay of 80% (approx.).

Note that all stakes were calculated using the excellent SBR Kelly Calculator. Always keep in mind the specific advice given in Kelly's Multiple Personality Disorder, which outlines the differing incarnations of Kelly Staking depending on the context! Win percentages and odds in the above example are not necessarily realistic for these types of events. That said, last weekend, Betfair offered moneyline odds of 15.00 against the New York Jets winning away to the Los Angeles Rams for amounts any 'Weekend-Warrior' would have happily staked - assuming they estimated the Jets had better than a 7% (approx.) chance of winning!

In sum, if you are trading simultaneous events then the total stake should be less than the sum of the individual single stakes!