Thursday, August 05, 2021

Winner Of Race But Not Necessarily Winner In Race

Winner Of Race But Not Necessarily Winner In Race


In every race there is a winner (first past the post) but there is not necessarily a winner (value bet) in every race.

Our plan of action should be to first choose a subset of the available races and only then select horses. If we are not specializing, then we are losing!

  • Select Races.
    • Filter each day's racing using WCMI to identify open races. See FlatStats for GB races.
  • Select Value Bets.
    • Use TWPD or equivalent automated or paper-based method to create oddsline baselined on market odds.
    • Identify at least one value bet in each selected race.
    • Bet selection(s) to win amount proportional to edge.
  • Automate process, if possible.
    • Computers do not get bored, tired, or chase losses.

Every race, in which we choose to participate, is a competition of oddslines between the crowd and us! Whichever oddsline is closer to the true win probabilities generally prevails.

In the words of one of the all-time great bettors:

"If you don’t see a good bet, then don’t force one." (Phil Bull)