Showing posts with label Automation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Automation. Show all posts

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Winner Of Race But Not Necessarily Winner In Race

Winner Of Race But Not Necessarily Winner In Race


In every race there is a winner (first past the post) but there is not necessarily a winner (value bet) in every race.

Our plan of action should be to first choose a subset of the available races and only then select horses. If we are not specializing, then we are losing!

  • Select Races.
    • Filter each day's racing using WCMI to identify open races. See FlatStats for GB races.
  • Select Value Bets.
    • Use TWPD or equivalent automated or paper-based method to create oddsline baselined on market odds.
    • Identify at least one value bet in each selected race.
    • Bet selection(s) to win amount proportional to edge.
  • Automate process, if possible.
    • Computers do not get bored, tired, or chase losses.

Every race, in which we choose to participate, is a competition of oddslines between the crowd and us! Whichever oddsline is closer to the true win probabilities generally prevails.

In the words of one of the all-time great bettors:

"If you don’t see a good bet, then don’t force one." (Phil Bull)