Neigh Sayers and Gallop Polls

Neigh Sayers

---

Imagine the scenario: "Two horses abreast heading for the final hurdle in a major handicap race of the Cheltenham Festival and one of those contenders ('Neigh Sayer') has £20 each-way of your hard-earned cash pinned on its success at 20/1. You can already anticipate congratulations from your mates on this successful convex bet..." As Weekend Warriors, we all dream of such improbable successes!

Live Longshot:

---

Now consider asking a ChatGPT-like private LLM bot to select (and justify) those bets for you. For the upcoming Cheltenham Festival, we are hopeful (though not guaranteeing) that we will provide some recommendations (from our Live-Longshot bot) for a few of the more challenging races!

Taster:

---

Here is a taster...

Enjoy!

Cheltenham 2018: Supreme Novices Hurdle Handicapping

It is time once again for our annual attempt to find live longshots to finish in the money in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (G1) at Cheltenham 2018.

As ever, our approach is based on the following premises:

1. Supreme Novices Hurdle is similar to Kentucky Derby - young horses, many 
attempting graded stakes, championship race for first-time with little form in book.
2. Eliminate non-contenders and whatever remains, no matter how improbable, are our selections. 
Horses are only eliminated under one heading even though they may qualify for elimination under 
multiple headings:
    a. Pedigree mismatch to former winners [Sharjah].
    b. Small fields [Slate House].
    c. Poor "Late-Speed" [First Flow, Shoal Bay].
    d. Poor Cheltenham Form [Golden Jeffrey].
    e. Not suited by Going [Saxo Jack, Trainwreck].
    f. Not suited by L-H track [Getabird].
    g. Poor FPR [Khudha, Lostintranslation, Mengli Khan].
    h. Over-exposed form [Claimantakinforgan, Dame Rose, Western Ryder].
    i. Weak "Strength-Of-Schedule" [Simply The Betts].
8. Minimum price 10/1 [Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy].

This leaves Paloma Blue 13/1, Us And Them 33/1, and Debuchet 40/1 as our selections with Kalashnikov 4/1 and Summerville Boy 8/1 only eliminated on price!

Note: Given the limited exposure of all the runners, we are not saying that those we have eliminated are not going to win - simply that they did not meet our criteria for live longshots to run in the money. The key takeaway, as always, is using a process of elimination not selection for identifying contenders.