Cheltenham 2018: Supreme Novices Hurdle Handicapping

It is time once again for our annual attempt to find live longshots to finish in the money in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (G1) at Cheltenham 2018.

As ever, our approach is based on the following premises:

1. Supreme Novices Hurdle is similar to Kentucky Derby - young horses, many 
attempting graded stakes, championship race for first-time with little form in book.
2. Eliminate non-contenders and whatever remains, no matter how improbable, are our selections. 
Horses are only eliminated under one heading even though they may qualify for elimination under 
multiple headings:
    a. Pedigree mismatch to former winners [Sharjah].
    b. Small fields [Slate House].
    c. Poor "Late-Speed" [First Flow, Shoal Bay].
    d. Poor Cheltenham Form [Golden Jeffrey].
    e. Not suited by Going [Saxo Jack, Trainwreck].
    f. Not suited by L-H track [Getabird].
    g. Poor FPR [Khudha, Lostintranslation, Mengli Khan].
    h. Over-exposed form [Claimantakinforgan, Dame Rose, Western Ryder].
    i. Weak "Strength-Of-Schedule" [Simply The Betts].
8. Minimum price 10/1 [Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy].

This leaves Paloma Blue 13/1, Us And Them 33/1, and Debuchet 40/1 as our selections with Kalashnikov 4/1 and Summerville Boy 8/1 only eliminated on price!

Note: Given the limited exposure of all the runners, we are not saying that those we have eliminated are not going to win - simply that they did not meet our criteria for live longshots to run in the money. The key takeaway, as always, is using a process of elimination not selection for identifying contenders.

Cheltenham 2017: Supreme Novices Hurdle Handicapping

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, in our annual attempt to find live longshots to finish in the money in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (G1) at Cheltenham 2017. As ever, our approach is based on the following premises: 

• Supreme Novices Hurdle is similar to Kentucky Derby - young horses, many attempting graded stakes, championship race for first-time with little form in book.
• Eliminate non-contenders and whatever remains, no matter how improbable...
• Avoid horses with pedigree mismatch to former winners [Melon, Crack Mome].
• Avoid horses from small fields [Labaik], [Elgin].
• Late speed important [Magna Cartor, Glaring, Capitol Force].
• Poor Cheltenham Form [River Wylde].
• Poor FPR [Pingshou, High Bridge].
• Minimum price 10/1 [Ballyandy, Bunk Off Early].

This leaves Beyond Conceit 20/1 and Cilaos Emery 16/1 as our selections!
Note, given the limited exposure of all the runners, we are not saying that those we have eliminated are not going to win - simply that they did not meet our criteria for live longshots to run in the money. The key takeaway, as always, is using a process of elimination not selection for identifying contenders.
Footnote: In their respective next outings, Cilaos Emery won G1 (Punchestown) and Beyond Conceit finished second in G1 (Aintree).

Dosage Late-Speed And Novice Hurdler Championship Race

As mentioned before, National Hunt racing is not my discipline. However, Cheltenham's four-day graded-stakes, championship meeting is a worthy challenge of one's handicapping skills. Effectively, this is the Breeders Cup of jumps racing. Lacking in-depth knowledge of this code, I seek to focus on novice races where historical, pedigree knowledge is as informative as current form. Turning to the Supreme Novices Hurdle (G1) and, given my working assumption that dosage is not factored into the starting prices, the following details are observed:

• Dosage Comparison With Former Winners;
• Past Performance Indicators Of Late Speed; and
• Live Longshot Prices.

I approach the task as follows using a process of elimination:

Note that I am not claiming any great insights and will be pleasantly surprised with a positive result.

Graded Stakes: Dosage And Live Longshots

With respect to handicapping classic generation (i.e. 3yo colts and fillies) graded stakes races around the world, it is often difficult to get the relevant data (past performances, trainer statistics, and so on) to make an informed selection. However, pedigree details are usually available and using dosage it is certainly possible to identify some live longshots.

For example, in the recent French 2000 Guineas, using past renewals (DI=1.85, CD=0.43) as a guideline dosage would have identified Lucayan (DI=1.80, CD=0.50) as the number one ranked contender (Won, 33/1).

Food for thought?