Oddsline Calculator

[Adapted - Skiena, 2001]

Sometimes you just want to convert a set of power ratings to a reasonably accurate oddsline.

Though my strong recommendation is to use the TWPD Algorithm to generate a realistic oddsline, you can use the Oddsline Calculator to create a 'quick and dirty' oddsline from a set of power ratings in AvK events.

Note the following restrictions:

• Maximum of ten entrants.
• Limited error checking.
  • For fewer than ten entrants, leave blank rows to bottom of table.
  • Odds range from 1.01 to 1000.
  • Power ratings range from 0 to 3000.
  • Power factor can be varied between 0 and 1 to change range of odds distribution. Default value is $1/e$.

As noted last time, every race, in which we choose to participate, is a competition of oddslines between the crowd and ourselves! Whichever oddsline is closer to the true win probabilities in that race generally prevails. So use the oddsline calculator with care!

Finally, an example using an AvB contest:

Winner Of Race But Not Necessarily Winner In Race

In every race there is a winner (first past the post) but there is not necessarily a winner (value bet) in every race.

Our plan of action should be to first choose a subset of the available races and only then select horses. If we are not specializing, then we are losing!

• Select Races.
  • Filter each day's racing using WCMI to identify open races. See FlatStats for GB races.
• Select Value Bets.
  • Use TWPD or equivalent automated or paper-based method to create oddsline baselined on market odds.
  • Identify at least one value bet in each selected race.
  • Bet selection(s) to win amount proportional to edge.
• Automate process, if possible.
  • Computers do not get bored, tired, or chase losses.

Every race, in which we choose to participate, is a competition of oddslines between the crowd and us! Whichever oddsline is closer to the true win probabilities generally prevails.

In the words of one of the all-time great bettors:

"If you don’t see a good bet, then don’t force one." (Phil Bull)

Royal Ascot Coventry Stakes Post-Mortem

Given a preference for identifying live-outsiders in chaotic races, it will come as no surprise that we were drawn to the Coventry Stakes on the first day of Royal Ascot. Seventeen relatively unexposed juveniles (2yos) with, by definition, little or no track record from which to draw any reasonable inferences.

However, with hindsight, we can make a few useful, post-mortem observations:

• WCMI gave green-light (0.11) indicating market was not well-informed;
• Prior Parameters (α = 5 and β = 5) set in line with horse finishing sixth in pseudo, eleven runner race (median juvenile non-handicap field-size);
• Despite obvious limitations of using Finish Position Ratings (FPR) alone, runners with ratings of 135+ filled five out of top six finishing positions compared to filling only three of remaining eleven.
• eldrickjones was the standout selection with FPR of 139 and Betfair win and show prices of 94.99 and 19.56 respectively.
• Obvious advantages to using FPR when comparing runners from different racing circuits (GB, IE, US).

In sum, the fewer, reliable details we have when comparing runners in juvenile races, the more informative FPR is for making live-outsider selections. Obviously, it is not a panacea!